A Large-Scale Genome-Wide Study of Gene-Sleep Duration Interactions for Blood Pressure in 811,405 Individuals from Diverse Populations.

Although both short and long sleep duration are associated with elevated hypertension risk, our understanding of their interplay with biological pathways governing blood pressure remains limited. To address this, we carried out genome-wide cross-population gene-by-short-sleep and long-sleep duration interaction analyses for three blood pressure traits (systolic, diastolic, and pulse pressure) in 811,405 individuals from diverse population groups. We discover 22 novel gene-sleep duration interaction loci for blood pressure, mapped to genes involved in neurological, thyroidal, bone metabolism, and hematopoietic pathways. Non-overlap between short sleep (12) and long sleep (10) interactions underscores the plausibility of distinct influences of both sleep duration extremes in cardiovascular health. With several of our loci reflecting specificity towards population background or sex, our discovery sheds light on the importance of embracing granularity when addressing heterogeneity entangled in gene-environment interactions, and in therapeutic design approaches for blood pressure management.

Whither dominance? An enduring evolutionary legacy of primate sociality.

This article discusses dominance personality dimensions found in primates, particularly in the great apes, and how they compare to dominance in humans. Dominance traits are seen in virtually all primate species, and these dimensions reflect how adept an individual is at ascending within a social hierarchy. Among great apes, dominance is one of the most prominent personality factors but, in humans, dominance is usually modeled as a facet of extraversion. Social, cultural, and cognitive differences between humans and our closest ape relatives are explored, alongside humanity's hierarchical and egalitarian heritage. The basic characteristics of dominance in humans and nonhuman great apes are then described, alongside the similarities and differences between great apes. African apes live in societies each with its own hierarchical organization. Humans were a possible exception for some of our history, but more recently, hierarchies have dominated. The general characteristics of high-dominance humans, particularly those living in industrialized nations, are described. Dominance itself can be subdivided into correlated subfactors: domineering, prestige, and leadership. Various explanations have been posed for why dominance has declined in prominence within human personality factor structures, and several possibilities are evaluated. The value of dominance in personality research is discussed: dominance has links to, for instance, age, sex, aggression, self-esteem, locus of control, stress, health, and multiple socioeconomic status indicators. The piece concludes with recommendations for researchers who wish to assess dominance in personality.

Childhood intelligence and risk of depression in later-life: A longitudinal data-linkage study.

Background: Lower childhood intelligence test scores are reported in some studies to be associated with higher risk of depression in adulthood. The reasons for the association are unclear. This longitudinal data-linkage study explored the relationship between childhood intelligence (at age ∼11) and risk of depression in later-life (up to age ∼85), and whether childhood family structure and adulthood socio-economic and geographical factors accounted for some of this association. Methods: Intelligence test scores collected in the Scottish Mental Survey 1947 were linked to electronic health records (hospital admissions and prescribing data) between 1980 and 2020 (n = 53,037), to identify diagnoses of depression. Mixed-effect Cox regression models were used to explore the relationship between childhood intelligence test scores and risk of depression in later-life. Analyses were also adjusted for childhood family structure (size of family) and adulthood socio-economic and geographical factors (Carstairs index, urban/rural). Results: Twenty-seven percent of participants were diagnosed with depression during follow-up (n = 14,063/53,037). Greater childhood intelligence test scores were associated with a reduced risk of depression in an unadjusted analysis (HR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.93 to 0.97, P < 0.001), and after adjustment for factors experienced in childhood and adulthood (HR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.91 to 1.00, P = 0.032). When identifying depression using only hospital admissions data, greater childhood intelligence test scores were associated with a reduced risk of depression following unadjusted analysis (HR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.82 to 0.90, P < 0.001), and after adjusting for risk factors in childhood and adulthood (HR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.89 to 0.99, P = 0.026). There was no association between childhood cognitive test scores and depression when identifying cases of depression using only prescribed drugs data. Conclusions: This study provides additional evidence suggesting that higher childhood intelligence predicts reduced risk of later-life depression only when depression is assessed based on hospital admission records. Childhood family structure and adulthood socio-economic and geographical factors did not seem to be substantial confounders.

Personality traits, rank attainment, and siring success throughout the lives of male chimpanzees of Gombe National Park.

Personality traits in many taxa correlate with fitness. Several models have been developed to try to explain how variation in these traits is maintained. One model proposes that variation persists because it is linked to trade-offs between current and future adaptive benefits. Tests of this model's predictions, however, are scant in long-lived species. To test this model, we studied male chimpanzees living in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. We operationalized six personality traits using ratings on 19 items. We used 37 years of behavioral and genetic data to assemble (1) daily rank scores generated from submissive vocalizations and (2) records of male siring success. We tested whether the association between two personality traits, Dominance and Conscientiousness, and either rank or reproductive success, varied over the life course. Higher Dominance and lower Conscientiousness were associated with higher rank, but the size and direction of these relationships did not vary over the life course. In addition, independent of rank at the time of siring, higher Dominance and lower Conscientiousness were related to higher siring success. Again, the size and direction of these relationships did not vary over the life course. The trade-off model, therefore, may not hold in long-lived and/or slowly reproducing species. These findings also demonstrate that ratings are a valid way to measure animal personality; they are related to rank and reproductive success. These traits could therefore be used to test alternative models, including one that posits that personality variation is maintained by environmental heterogeneity, in studies of multiple chimpanzee communities.

Pre-pandemic mental and physical health as predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: evidence from a UK-wide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although several predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy have been identified, the role of physical health and, particularly, mental health, is poorly understood. METHODS: We used individual-level data from a pandemic-focused investigation (COVID Survey), a prospective cohort study nested within the UK Understanding Society (Main Survey) project. In the week immediately following the announcement of successful testing of the first efficacious inoculation (Oxford University/AstraZeneca, November/December 2020), data on vaccine intentionality were collected in 12,035 individuals aged 16-95 years. Pre-pandemic, study members had responded to enquiries about diagnoses of mental and physical health, including the completion of the 12-item General Health Questionnaire for symptoms of psychological distress (anxiety and depression). Peri-pandemic, individuals indicated whether they or someone in their household was shielding; that is, people judged by the UK National Health Service as being particularly clinically vulnerable who were therefore requested to remain at home. Intention to take up vaccination for COVID-19 was also self-reported. RESULTS: In an analytical sample of 11,955 people (6741 women), 15.4% indicated that they were vaccine-hesitant. Relative to their disease-free counterparts, shielding was associated with a 24% lower risk of being hesitant (odds ratio; 95% confidence interval: 0.76; 0.59, 0.96), after adjustment for a range of covariates which included age, education, and ethnicity. Corresponding results for cardiometabolic disease were 22% (0.78; 0.64, 0.95), and for respiratory disease were 26% (0.74; 0.59, 0.93). Having a pre-pandemic diagnosis of anxiety or depression, or a high score on the distress symptom scale, were all unrelated to the willingness to vaccine-hesitancy. CONCLUSIONS: People with a physical condition were more likely to take up the potential offer of a COVID-19 vaccination. These effects were not apparent for indices of mental health.Key messagesIn understanding predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, the role of physical and mental health has not been well-examined despite both groups seemingly experiencing an elevated risk of the disease.In a large UK cohort study, people with a pre-pandemic physical condition were more likely to take up the theoretical offer of vaccination.There were no apparent effects for indices of pre-pandemic mental health.

Pre-pandemic cognitive function and COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Whereas several predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy have been reported, the role of cognitive function is largely unknown. Accordingly, our objective was to evaluate the association between scores from an array of cognitive function tests and self-reported vaccine hesitancy after the announcement of the successful testing of the first COVID-19 vaccine (Oxford University/AstraZeneca). METHODS: We used individual-level data from a pandemic-focused study ('COVID Survey'), a prospective cohort study nested within United Kingdom Understanding Society ('Main Survey'). In the week immediately following the announcement of successful testing of the first efficacious inoculation (November/December 2020), data on vaccine intentionality were collected in 11,740 individuals (6702 women) aged 16-95 years. Pre-pandemic scores on general cognitive function, ascertained from a battery of six tests, were captured in 2011/12 wave of the Main Survey. Study members self-reported their intention to take up a vaccination in the COVID-19 Survey. RESULTS: Of the study sample, 17.2% (N = 1842) indicated they were hesitant about having the vaccine. After adjustment for age, sex, and ethnicity, study members with a lower baseline cognition score were markedly more likely to be vaccine hesitant (odds ratio per standard deviation lower score in cognition; 95% confidence interval: 1.76; 1.62, 1.90). Adjustment for mental and physical health plus household shielding status had no impact on these results, whereas controlling for educational attainment led to partial attenuation but the probability of hesitancy was still elevated (1.52; 1.37, 1.67). There was a linear association for vaccine hesitancy across the full range of cognition scores (p for trend: p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Erroneous social media reports might have complicated personal decision-making, leading to people with lower cognitive ability being vaccine-hesitant. With individuals with lower cognition also experiencing higher rates of COVID-19 in studies conducted prior to vaccine distribution, these new findings are suggestive of a potential additional disease burden.

Pre-pandemic mental and physical health as predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: evidence from a UK-wide cohort study.

IMPORTANCE: Although several predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy have been identified, the role of physical health has not been well-examined, and the association with mental health is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of pre-pandemic mental health, physical health, and shielding with vaccine hesitancy after the announcement of the successful testing of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine. DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We used individual-level data from a pandemic-focused investigation (COVID Survey), a prospective cohort study nested within the UK Understanding Society (Main Survey) project. In the week immediately following the announcement of successful testing of the first efficacious inoculation (November/December 2020), data on vaccine intentionality were collected in 12,035 individuals aged 16-95 years. Pre-pandemic, study members had responded to enquiries about diagnoses of mental and physical health, completed the 12-item General Health Questionnaire for symptoms of psychological distress (anxiety and depression), and indicated whether they or someone in their household was shielding. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported intention to take up a vaccination for COVID-19. To summarise our results, we computed odds ratios with accompanying 95% confidence intervals for indices of health and shielding adjusted for selected covariates. RESULTS: In an analytical sample of 11,955 people (6741 women), 15.4% indicated that they were vaccine hesitant. Relative to their disease-free counterparts, shielding was associated with a 24% lower risk of being hesitant (odds ratio; 95% confidence interval: 0.76; 0.59, 0.96), after adjustment for a range of covariates which included age, education, and ethnicity. Corresponding results for cardiometabolic disease were 22% (0.78; 0.64, 0.95), and for respiratory disease were 26% (0.74; 0.59, 0.93). Having a pre-pandemic diagnosis of anxiety or depression, or a high score on the distress symptom scale, were all unrelated to the willingness to take up a vaccine. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: People who have been prioritised for COVID-19 vaccination owing to a physical condition are more likely to take it up. These effects were not apparent for indices of mental health.

Pre-pandemic Cognitive Function and COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy: Cohort Study.

Background: Whereas several predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy have been examined, the role of cognitive function following the widely publicised development of an inoculation is unknown. Objective: To test the association between scores from an array of cognitive function tests and self-reported vaccine hesitancy after the announcement of the successful testing of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine. Design Setting and Participants: We used individual-level data from a pandemic-focused study (COVID Survey), a prospective cohort study nested within Understanding Society (Main Survey). In the week immediately following the announcement of successful testing of the first efficacious inoculation (November/December 2020), data on vaccine intentionality were collected in 11740 individuals (6702 women) aged 16-95. Pre-pandemic scores on general cognitive function, ascertained from a battery of six tests, were captured in 2011/12 wave of the Main Survey. Measurements: Self-reported intention to take up a vaccination for COVID-19. To summarise our results, we computed odds ratios with accompanying 95% confidence intervals for general cognitive function adjusted for selected covariates. Results: Of the study sample, 17.2% (N=1842) indicated they were hesitant about having the vaccine. After adjustment for age, sex, and ethnicity, study members with a lower baseline cognition score were markedly more likely to be vaccine hesitant (odds ratio per standard deviation lower score in cognition; 95% confidence interval: 1.76; 1.62, 1.90). Adjustment for mental and physical health plus household shielding status had no impact on these results, whereas controlling for educational attainment led to partial attenuation but the probability of hesitancy was still elevated (1.52; 1.37, 1.67). There was a linear association for vaccine hesitancy across the full range of cognition scores (p for trend: p<0.0001). Limitations: Our outcome was based on intention rather than behaviour. Conclusions: Erroneous social media reports might have complicated personal decision-making, leading to people with lower cognitive ability test scores being vaccine-hesitant. With people with lower cognition also experiencing higher rates of COVID-19 in studies conducted prior to vaccine distribution, these new findings are suggestive of a potential additional disease burden.

Change in Health Literacy over a Decade in a Prospective Cohort of Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Health literacy is often viewed as a static trait in longitudinal studies, which may over or underestimate an individual's ability to manage one's health. OBJECTIVES: We sought to examine health literacy over time among older adults using three widely used measures. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling adults ages 55 to 74 at baseline with at least one follow-up visit (N = 656) recruited from one academic internal medicine clinic and six community health centers in Chicago, IL. MEASURES: Health literacy was measured using the Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults (TOFHLA), Newest Vital Sign (NVS), and Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine (REALM) at baseline and up to three follow-up time points. RESULTS: In unadjusted analyses, significant changes since baseline were found beginning at the second follow-up (mean (M) = 6.0 years, SD = 0.6) for the TOFHLA (M = - 0.9, SD = 0.95, p = 0.049) and the REALM (M = 0.3, SD = 2.5, p = 0.004) and at the last follow-up (M = 8.6 years, SD = 0.5) for the NVS (M = - 0.2, SD = 1.4, p = 0.02). There were non-linear effects of baseline age on TOFHLA and NVS scores over time (piecewise cubic spline p = 0.01 and p < 0.001, respectively) and no effect on REALM scores (B = 0.02, 95% CI - 0.01 to 0.04, p = 0.17) using multivariable mixed-effects linear regression models, controlling for race, education, income, and comorbidity. CONCLUSION: We found a negative relationship between age and health literacy over time as measured by the TOFHLA and NVS. Health literacy barriers appear to be more prevalent among individuals in later life, when self-care demands are similarly increasing. Clinicians might consider strategies to assess and respond to limited health literacy, particularly among patients 70 and older. REALM performance remained stable over 10 years of follow-up. This questions whether health literacy tools measure the same attribute. Prospective health literacy studies should carefully consider what measures to use, depending on their objective.

TeenCovidLife: a resource to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescents in Scotland.

TeenCovidLife is part of Generation Scotland's CovidLife projects, a set of longitudinal observational studies designed to assess the psychosocial and health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. TeenCovidLife focused on how adolescents in Scotland were coping during the pandemic. As of September 2021, Generation Scotland had conducted three TeenCovidLife surveys. Participants from previous surveys were invited to participate in the next, meaning the age ranges shifted over time. TeenCovidLife Survey 1 consists of data from 5,543 young people age 12 to 17, collected from 22 May to 5 July 2020, during the first school closures period in Scotland. TeenCovidLife Survey 2 consists of data from 2,245 young people aged 12 to 18, collected from 18 August to 14 October 2020, when the initial lockdown measures were beginning to ease, and schools reopened in Scotland. TeenCovidLife Survey 3 consists of data from 597 young people age 12 to 19, collected from 12 May to 27 June 2021, a year after the first survey, after the schools returned following the second lockdown in 2021. A total of 316 participants took part in all three surveys. TeenCovidLife collected data on general health and well-being, as well as topics specific to COVID-19, such as adherence to COVID-19 health guidance, feelings about school closures, and the impact of exam cancellations. Limited work has examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on young people. TeenCovidLife provides relevant and timely data to assess the impact of the pandemic on young people in Scotland. The dataset is available under authorised access from Generation Scotland; see the Generation Scotland website for more information.

Generational differences in loneliness and its psychological and sociodemographic predictors: an exploratory and confirmatory machine learning study.

BACKGROUND: Loneliness is a growing public health issue in the developed world. Among older adults, loneliness is a particular challenge, as the older segment of the population is growing and loneliness is comorbid with many mental as well as physical health issues. Comorbidity and common cause factors make identifying the antecedents of loneliness difficult, however, contemporary machine learning techniques are positioned to tackle this problem. METHODS: This study analyzed four cohorts of older individuals, split into two age groups - 45-69 and 70-79 - to examine which common psychological and sociodemographic are associated with loneliness at different ages. Gradient boosted modeling, a machine learning technique, and regression models were used to identify and replicate associations with loneliness. RESULTS: In all cohorts, higher emotional stability was associated with lower loneliness. In the older group, social circumstances such as living alone were also associated with higher loneliness. In the younger group, extraversion's association with lower loneliness was the only other confirmed relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Different individual and social factors might underlie loneliness differences in distinct age groups. Machine learning methods have the potential to unveil novel associations between psychological and social variables, particularly interactions, and mental health outcomes.

Mental health before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in two longitudinal UK population cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and mitigation measures are likely to have a marked effect on mental health. It is important to use longitudinal data to improve inferences. AIMS: To quantify the prevalence of depression, anxiety and mental well-being before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Also, to identify groups at risk of depression and/or anxiety during the pandemic. METHOD: Data were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) index generation (n = 2850, mean age 28 years) and parent generation (n = 3720, mean age 59 years), and Generation Scotland (n = 4233, mean age 59 years). Depression was measured with the Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire in ALSPAC and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 in Generation Scotland. Anxiety and mental well-being were measured with the Generalised Anxiety Disorder Assessment-7 and the Short Warwick Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale. RESULTS: Depression during the pandemic was similar to pre-pandemic levels in the ALSPAC index generation, but those experiencing anxiety had almost doubled, at 24% (95% CI 23-26%) compared with a pre-pandemic level of 13% (95% CI 12-14%). In both studies, anxiety and depression during the pandemic was greater in younger members, women, those with pre-existing mental/physical health conditions and individuals in socioeconomic adversity, even when controlling for pre-pandemic anxiety and depression. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide evidence for increased anxiety in young people that is coincident with the pandemic. Specific groups are at elevated risk of depression and anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is important for planning current mental health provisions and for long-term impact beyond this pandemic.

CovidLife: a resource to understand mental health, well-being and behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK.

CovidLife is a longitudinal observational study designed to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health, well-being and behaviour in adults living in the UK. In total, 18,518 participants (mean age = 56.43, SD = 14.35) completed the first CovidLife questionnaire (CovidLife1) between April and June 2020. To date, participants have completed two follow-up assessments. CovidLife2 took place between July and August 2020 (n = 11,319), and CovidLife3 took place in February 2021 (n = 10,386). A range of social and psychological measures were administered at each wave including assessments of anxiety, depression, well-being, loneliness and isolation. Information on sociodemographic, health, and economic circumstances was also collected. Questions also assessed information on COVID-19 infections and symptoms, compliance to COVID-19 restrictions, and opinions on the UK and Scottish Governments' handling of the pandemic. CovidLife includes a subsample of 4,847 participants from the Generation Scotland cohort (N~24,000, collected 2006-2011); a well-characterised cohort of families in Scotland with pre-pandemic data on mental health, physical health, lifestyle, and socioeconomic factors, along with biochemical and genomic data derived from biological samples. These participants also consented to their study data being linked to Scottish health records. CovidLife and Generation Scotland data can be accessed and used by external researchers following approval from the Generation Scotland Access Committee. CovidLife can be used to investigate mental health, well-being and behaviour during COVID-19; how these vary according to sociodemographic, health and economic circumstances; and how these change over time. The Generation Scotland subsample with pre-pandemic data and linkage to health records can be used to investigate the predictors of health and well-being during COVID-19 and the future health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Do childhood socioeconomic circumstances moderate the association between childhood cognitive ability and all-cause mortality across the life course? Prospective observational study of the 36-day sample of the Scottish Mental Survey 1947.

BACKGROUND: There is growing evidence that higher childhood cognitive ability predicts lower all-cause mortality risk across the life course. Whereas this association does not appear to be mediated by childhood socioeconomic circumstances, it is unclear whether socioeconomic circumstances moderate this association. METHODS: The moderating role of childhood socioeconomic circumstances was assessed in 5318 members of the 36-day sample of the Scottish Mental Survey 1947. Univariate, sex-adjusted and age-adjusted, and mutually adjusted Cox models predicting all-cause mortality risk up to age 79 years were created using childhood IQ scores and childhood social class as predictors. Moderation was assessed by adding an interaction term between IQ scores and social class and comparing model fit. RESULTS: An SD advantage in childhood IQ scores (HR=0.83, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.86, p<0.001) and a single-class advantage in childhood social class (HR=0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97, p<0.001) independently predicted lower mortality risk. Adding the IQ-social class interaction effect did not improve model fit (χ2Δ=1.36, p=0.24), and the interaction effect did not predict mortality risk (HR=1.03, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.07, p=0.25). CONCLUSIONS: The present study demonstrated that the association between higher childhood cognitive ability and lower all-cause mortality risk is not conditional on childhood social class. Whereas other measures of socioeconomic circumstances may play a moderating role, these findings suggest that the benefits of higher childhood cognitive ability for longevity apply regardless of the material socioeconomic circumstances experienced in childhood.

Trialling Meta-Research in Comparative Cognition: Claims and Statistical Inference in Animal Physical Cognition.

Scientific disciplines face concerns about replicability and statistical inference, and these concerns are also relevant in animal cognition research. This paper presents a first attempt to assess how researchers make and publish claims about animal physical cognition, and the statistical inferences they use to support them. We surveyed 116 published experiments from 63 papers on physical cognition, covering 43 different species. The most common tasks in our sample were trap-tube tasks (14 papers), other tool use tasks (13 papers), means-end understanding and string-pulling tasks (11 papers), object choice and object permanence tasks (9 papers) and access tasks (5 papers). This sample is not representative of the full scope of physical cognition research; however, it does provide data on the types of statistical design and publication decisions researchers have adopted. Across the 116 experiments, the median sample size was 7. Depending on the definitions we used, we estimated that between 44% and 59% of our sample of papers made positive claims about animals' physical cognitive abilities, between 24% and 46% made inconclusive claims, and between 10% and 17% made negative claims. Several failures of animals to pass physical cognition tasks were reported. Although our measures had low inter-observer reliability, these findings show that negative results can and have been published in the field. However, publication bias is still present, and consistent with this, we observed a drop in the frequency of p-values above .05. This suggests that some non-significant results have not been published. More promisingly, we found that researchers are likely making many correct statistical inferences at the individual-level. The strength of evidence of statistical effects at the group-level was weaker, and its p-value distribution was consistent with some effect sizes being overestimated. Studies such as ours can form part of a wider investigation into statistical reliability in comparative cognition. However, future work should focus on developing the validity and reliability of the measurements they use, and we offer some starting points.

Blood pressure and cognitive function across the eighth decade: a prospective study of the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1936.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the associations among blood pressure and cognitive functions across the eighth decade, while accounting for antihypertensive medication and lifetime stability in cognitive function. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: This study used data from the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936) study, which recruited participants living in the Lothian region of Scotland when aged 70 years, most of whom had completed an intelligence test at age 11 years. PARTICIPANTS: 1091 members of the LBC1936 with assessments of cognitive ability in childhood and older adulthood, and blood pressure measurements in older adulthood. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants were followed up at ages 70, 73, 76 and 79, and latent growth curve models and linear mixed models were used to analyse both cognitive functions and blood pressure as primary outcomes. RESULTS: Blood pressure followed a quadratic trajectory in the eighth decade: on average blood pressure rose in the first waves and subsequently fell. Intercepts and trajectories were not associated between blood pressure and cognitive functions. Women with higher early-life cognitive function generally had lower blood pressure during the eighth decade. Being prescribed antihypertensive medication was associated with lower blood pressure, but not with better cognitive function. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that women with higher early-life cognitive function had lower later-life blood pressure. However, we did not find support for the hypothesis that rises in blood pressure and worse cognitive decline are associated with one another in the eighth decade.

Psychosocial factors and hospitalisations for COVID-19: Prospective cohort study of the general population.

Objective: To examine the association of a range of psychosocial factors with hospitalisation for COVID-19. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: England. Participants: UK Biobank comprises around half a million people who were aged 40 to 69 years at study induction between 2006 and 2010 when information on psychosocial factors and covariates were captured. Main outcome measure: Hospitalisation for COVID-19 in England between 16th March and 26th April 2020 as provided by Public Health England. Results: There were 908 hospitalisations for COVID-19 in an analytical sample of 431,051 people. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, an elevated risk of COVID-19 was related to disadvantaged levels of education (odds ratio; 95% confidence interval: 2.05; 1.70, 2.47), income (2.00; 1.63, 2,47), area deprivation (2.20; 1.86, 2.59), occupation (1.39; 1.14, 1.69), psychological distress (1.58; 1.32, 1.89), mental health (1.50; 1.25, 1.79), neuroticism (1.19; 1.00, 1.42), and performance on two tests of cognitive function - verbal and numerical reasoning (2.66; 2.06, 3.34) and reaction speed (1.27; 1.08, 1.51). These associations were graded (p-value for trend ≤0.038) such that effects were apparent across the full psychosocial continua. After mutual adjustment for these characteristics plus ethnicity, comorbidity, and lifestyle factors, only the relationship between lower cognitive function as measured using the reasoning test and a doubling in the risk of the infection remained (1.98; 1.38, 2.85). Conclusion: A range of psychosocial factors revealed associations with hospitalisations for COVID-19 of which the relation with cognitive function was most robust to statistical adjustment.

Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.